2009 MLB Playoff Predictions - ALCS and NLDS
Round 1 of the 2009 MLB Playoffs has completed, and I did not do very well in my predictions, which you can point and laugh at here.
Of course, predictions are just that. Results you expect to occur, hopefully with some rhyme and reason to back it all up. Whether they actually become reality or not, is a whole nother story.
So first, a little wrap-up of the ALDS and NLDS before moving onto the ALCS and NLDS.
AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:
New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
My prediction: Yankees in 3 games.
Reality: Yankees in 3 games
The only prediction that I got right, and I suspect that a lot of people got right too. The Twins weren't good enough to compete with the Bombers, and even during the games that they might have actually taken from the Yanks, they couldn't win. Game 2 was the ultimate in that case, with the Phil Cuzzi blown call in leftfield taking center stage, but the Twins had numerous opportunities to score in that game and never did.
Closer Joe Nathan continued his terrible postseason by giving up a game-tying HR in the bottom of the 9th of Game 2 to A-Rod, and also gave up 2 hits to the Yankees in the 9th inning of Game 3. Those hits led to 2 Yankee runs which were charged to other Twins relievers, but Nathan couldn't stop the Yankees from scoring. As great as Joe Nathan is during the regular season, he's been quite awful in the postseason, posting a 7.88 ERA.
AMERICAN LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES:
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox
I definitely figured this series was going to be a lot more competitive than it turned out. Although I was correct in that the Dodgers needed to survive by hitting off of St. Louis' shaky bullpen. I didn't however, expect Matt Holliday to drop the ball in Game 2, and then Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin to be unable to get any of the additional batters out despite having 2 outs. That game was a heartbreaker if you're a St. Louis fan, or a Dodgers despiser like me.
My prediction: Boston in 4 games.
Reality: Angels in 3 games.
Never so happy to be so wrong on both counts.
The Angels were supposed to be shut down by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Instead, it was the pitching of the Angels in the first two games that shut down the Red Sox. Lackey in Game 1, Weaver in Game 2. The Angels' gave up 1 run to Boston in the first two games.
Game 3 was probably the best game of the entire Division Series, because of the unlikeliest of unlikely comebacks against Boston's closer Jonathan Papelbon leading the Angels to a 3-game sweep over their nemesis. I could write more about it here, but my liveblog of the game says it all.
Reality: Philadelphia in 4 games.
Right number of games, wrong team.
The bottom line in this series was Cliff Lee, the Phillies bullpen not blowing things, especially Brad Lidge notching 2 saves in the series. That, plus the Phillies' offense out-hitting and out-running the Rockies, and the inability of Rockies closer Huston Street to stave off the Phillies' comeback in Game 4.
Never so happy to be so wrong on both counts.
The Angels were supposed to be shut down by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Instead, it was the pitching of the Angels in the first two games that shut down the Red Sox. Lackey in Game 1, Weaver in Game 2. The Angels' gave up 1 run to Boston in the first two games.
Game 3 was probably the best game of the entire Division Series, because of the unlikeliest of unlikely comebacks against Boston's closer Jonathan Papelbon leading the Angels to a 3-game sweep over their nemesis. I could write more about it here, but my liveblog of the game says it all.
NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
My prediction: Colorado in 4 games.Reality: Philadelphia in 4 games.
Right number of games, wrong team.
The bottom line in this series was Cliff Lee, the Phillies bullpen not blowing things, especially Brad Lidge notching 2 saves in the series. That, plus the Phillies' offense out-hitting and out-running the Rockies, and the inability of Rockies closer Huston Street to stave off the Phillies' comeback in Game 4.
NATIONAL LEAGUE DIVISION SERIES
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
My prediction: St. Louis in 5 games.Reality: Dodgers in 3 games.
I definitely figured this series was going to be a lot more competitive than it turned out. Although I was correct in that the Dodgers needed to survive by hitting off of St. Louis' shaky bullpen. I didn't however, expect Matt Holliday to drop the ball in Game 2, and then Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin to be unable to get any of the additional batters out despite having 2 outs. That game was a heartbreaker if you're a St. Louis fan, or a Dodgers despiser like me.
Game 3 was the pitching performance of Vicente Padilla's lifetime, as he shut down the Cardinals over 7 strong innings of 4-hit ball. The Dodgers did not have any problems hitting Joel Pineiro though, en route to a surprising sweep of the Cardinals. It's not that the Dodgers didn't have a chance against St. Louis, but no one expected the Cards to fold the way they did.
The Dodgers pitching was also brilliant in the series, giving up 6 runs over 3 games.
So with the ALCS and NLCS set, we have a rematch of last year's NLCS between Philadelphia and Los Angeles, and a highly anticipated 7-game series matchup between the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. No wild cards this season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
History favors the Angels here, as they beat the Yankees in both the 2002 and 2005 ALDS. Both times, the Yankees were the favorite. Does history matter this time? After all, Boston owned the Angels in the past.
The main difference that everyone keeps talking about between the Angels and Yankees, is the bullpen. The Yankees have Mariano Rivera, the Angels have the inconsistent Brian Fuentes. But the Yankees had Rivera in 2002 and 2005 too. And while the Angels had better bullpens in those seasons, they still managed to attack Yankee pitching before Rivera could make an impact. For all of the negatives in the Angels bullpen one can lob, they've been outstanding in the postseason thus far. Plus, the postseason Angels bullpen is slightly different from the regular season version, using 2 fairly successful starters (Ervin Santana and Matt Palmer) in middle relief, along with Darren Oliver, Jason Bulger, Kevin Jepsen and Brian Fuentes.
The Yankees definitely have the sluggers with A-Rod, Tex, Posada, Matsui, with Mr. October/November Derek Jeter always a pest in the postseason against every team he plays against. But the Angels' also have some firepower of their own in Torii Hunter and Kendry Morales. Plus Vlad is always still a power threat, even if he's not the same player he used to be. Still, this is the one undeniable advantage the Yankees' offense has over the Angels. Especially now that A-Rod has been able to hit in the postseason for once as a New York Yankee. Damn you Kate Hudson!
Starting pitching is a big factor in this matchup, with CC Sabathia expected to pitch Games 1, 4 and 7 if needed. CC is a fantastic pitcher without question, but his numbers against the Angels over his career (5-7, 4.72 ERA) are not favorable. Nor has be been successful against them this season, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in 2 starts against Anaheim. Sabathia has also not proven to be the best postseason pitcher, with Game 1 of the ALDS against Minnesota being the first sign that Sabathia can actually pitch well in October. Whether he can do the same against Anaheim remains to be seen.
Everyone is predicting the Yankees in a long series, and unfortunately, I'm inclined to agree. Less so because of the bullpen, moreso because of the Yankees' offense. The Angels may end up running the bases all day, but with the Yankees getting home field advantage in their band box, I see this series ever so slightly tipping the Yankee's way.
I really really really really hope I am wrong again, but...
My prediction: Yankees in 7 games.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
This is also a very interesting matchup. A rematch of the 2008 NLCS that Philadelphia won in 5 games. This year, Philadelphia's pitching is weaker overall, but they do have a bonafide ace in Cliff Lee, who was phenomenal against the Rockies in the NLDS.
The Dodgers have probably the best top-to-bottom bullpen of the remaining 4 teams, and that includes the Yankees. But the Phillies have an extremely potent offense, capable of rattling the Dodger's starters, none of which, except perhaps Clayton Kershaw, should have any significant dominant effect on Philadelphia. The resurgence of Brad Lidge as the Phillies closer, at least based on the NLDS, can't go unnoticed, even if it was only 2 games.
Still, if Phillie starters after Cliff Lee can't be effective in the NLCS, they are going to be in trouble. Cole Hamels is going to pitch Game 1, and he's gotta find his 2008 form somehow after suffering a very mediocre 2009 season. Pedro Martinez is slated to pitch Game 2 at Dodger Stadium, although he has been scarce during the last couple of weeks after suffering a stiff neck problem towards the end of the season.
They say that in the postseason, great pitching beats great hitting. But I don't see the Dodgers having great pitching this time. There's no way in hell that Vicente Padilla makes lightning strikes twice in the postseason, is there? I see the Philadelphia offense being able to handle the Dodgers as they did last year, even with the questions surrounding their pitching staff beyond Cliff Lee.
My prediction: Philadelphia in 6 games.
