Great baseball farm systems are nice, but they're no guarantee of anything.
Tampa Bay Rays 2008 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 14-8 3.56 ERA, 215 IP, 40 BB, 160 K
Andy Sonnanstine 13-9 4.38 ERA, 193.1 IP, 37 BB, 124 K
Matt Garza 11-9 3.70 ERA, 184.2 IP, 59 BB, 128 K
Edwin Jackson 14-11 4.42 ERA, 183.1 IP, 77 BB, 108 K
Scott Kazmir 12-8 3.49 ERA, 152.1 IP, 70 BB, 166 K
- James Shields, drafted by Tampa in 2000.
- Andy Sonnantine, drafted by Tampa in 2004.
- Matt Garza, acquired in a 2007 trade along with SS Jason Bartlett with the Minnesota Twins.
- Edwin Jackson, acquired in a 2006 trade with the Dodgers. Jackson was TERRIBLE with the 2007 Rays, going 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA. Jackson was traded to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce after the 2008 season.
- Scott Kazmir... we know.
At this point in time last year, the Rays were 35-24.
Now we look at the 2009 starting rotation for the Tampa Bay Rays and how they're performing so far...
Tampa Bay Rays 2009 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 4-4 3.53 ERA, 74 IP, 20 BB, 52 K
Matt Garza 4-4 3.67 ERA, 73.2 IP, 28 BB, 66 K
Andy Sonnanstine 4-5 7.07 ERA, 56.0 IP, 16 BB, 32 K
Jeff Niemann 5-4 3.77 ERA, 59.2 IP, 24 BB, 39 K
Scott Kazmir 4-4 7.69 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 BB, 35 K
And since Kazmir is now on the DL, and the Rays FINALLY called up top draft pick David Price...
David Price 1-0 3.00 ERA, 9 IP, 7 BB, 17 K
So from examining the starting rotations based on the available stats, the only major issues are the falloff of Andy Sonnanstine and the injury to Kazmir. Kazmir will come back later this month.
Ideally, the Rays would best be suited to have Price and Kazmir healthy and in the rotation, and find another role for Sonnanstine, who likely peaked in 2008.
The offense for the Rays is primarily the same as it was last year with the major changes being Pat Burrell at DH instead of Cliff Floyd.
So despite having a very similar roster to the 2008 team, this is a .500 team at 28-28 on June 3, 2009.
Every team has injuries:
But the Rays suffered a big blow with 2B Akinori Iwamura tearing his ACL and he's gone for the season.
SS Jason Bartlett is currently on the 15-day DL with a sprained left ankle.
DH Pat Burrell is on the 15-day DL with a neck strain, though expected to return in late June.
3B Evan Longoria has a sore left hamstring right now, but SHOULD be ready to play by the weekend. Losing Longoria for any period of time would be extremely devastating to Tampa.
Closer Troy Percival, who had a huge comeback season in 2008, has had a disappointing 2009 and may be gone for the year with shoulder tendinitis, if not his career.
So yes, you can have a great farm system and develop quality players like Longoria, Shields, Price, etc.
But the Rays also have their share of veterans. Some are extremely productive stars (Carl Crawford) or underrated veterans (Carlos Pena), others are filling up roster space (Gabe Kapler, Jason Isringhausen).
And despite having a very similar team to a year ago, they're not playing the way they were. They could potentially have a strong second half and make a run at the AL East, but with Boston and New York having strengthened their rosters in the off-season, that's going to be a tough going.
Their starting rotation is made up of...
1. The best pitcher in the NL
2. Mike Pelfrey, a homegrown Met farm system product who has finally begun to reach his potential.
3. John Maine, a minor league scrub in the Orioles organization who actually became a decent major league pitcher with the Mets.
4. Livan Hernandez, a one-year low-salary journeyman who has been far better than anyone had a right to expect this year, ESPECIALLY against NL East rivals.
5. Oliver Perez, an overpaid free agent who has had an awful start to the 2009 season, but his knee tendinitis is no b.s., and there is still a fair amount of upside to him if he can regain his prior form.
6. Tim Redding. 3 starts in 2009. 1 great, 2 stunk. Not exactly a fair sample to judge by.
Other Met players on the 2009 team who have come up through the Mets farm system?
Jose Reyes, David Wright, Bobby Parnell, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez (and it looks like he ain't ready, but circumstances dictated a callup.)
What about our CAN'T MISS TOP PROSPECT Lastings Milledge who Minaya so insanely foolishly (dripping with sarcasm) traded to Washington?
After a very mediocre 2008, Milledge had a terrible 2009 start at the plate, lost all plate discipline, somehow played worse defense in the OF than Daniel Murphy, pissed off Nationals management (fairly or unfairly, but either way he certainly wasn't producing). As a result, Milledge was optioned to AAA Syracuse, and then broke his finger while trying to bunt.
The point about Lastings Milledge is the same point about Alex Escobar is the same point about Carlos Gomez is the same point about Aaron Heilman.
There's no perfect nor exact science to drafting players. Pitchers that put up great numbers in college may translate to the majors, or they may be total busts. There's zero way to know for sure.
The Nationals are obviously going to draft Stephen Strasburg later this month. Will he be the best pitcher in the game in 2012? Or is he going to be another bust of a top can't-miss prospect? I'd certainly rather have him on the Mets than not, but no one in their right mind is recommending trading Johan Santana for that kid either.
