Putting a shitty Mets start to 2009 in perspective.
The New York Mets are not off to a good start.
None of the starting pitchers except for Johan Santana are pitching with any semblance of consistency.
With the exception of a winning start over San Diego on April 15, Oliver Perez has been absolutely terrible.
The jury is still out on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine, and Livan Hernandez has so far only been able to pitch well against the Marlins and no one else. As it is, the expectations for Livan Hernandez are quite low.
While Frankie Rodriguez has not blown any saves yet, and he will, JJ Putz and Sean Green have not held leads during the last two games of the series against the Florida Marlins at CitiField. While these things are bound to happen, you don't want to see them happen two games in a row.
David Wright is off to a very bad start, and he's whiffing at a record pace for him. Slow starts are one thing, but striking out like you're Ryan Howard is another. On the other hand, you can see that his numbers for the month of April 2009 are still better than his start to April 2007, with only the strikeouts being the major increase.
April 2005: 17 strikeouts in 76 ABs, 23 games, .303 / .418 / .539
April 2006: 13 strikeouts in 89 ABs, 24 games. .303 / .377 / .584
April 2007: 23 strikeouts in 90 ABs. 24 games. .244 / .370 / .311
April 2008: 16 strikeouts in 96 ABs. 26 games. .281 / .417 / .531 (one game on March 31, 2008 also included)
April 2009: 27 strikeouts in 82 ABs. 21 games. .280 / .372 / .390
The highest amount of strikeouts David Wright has ever had in a single month was May 2006, when he struck out 29 times, but in 27 games and 110 ABs. He still remained far more productive during that period though, hitting .336 / .408 / .500.
However, slow starts do not rule out a team's ability to get to the posteason come October.
Here are the 21-game records of the World Series teams (both winner and loser) dating back to 2000. I use 21 as the benchmark since that's how many games the Mets have played in the 2009 season as of April 30.
(Teams with below .500 records after 21 games are bolded and italicized.)
2000: New York Yankees (14-7) and New York Mets (14-7)
2001: Arizona Diamondbacks (11-10) and New York Yankees (11-10)
2002: Anaheim Angels (7-14) and San Francisco Giants (13-8)
2003: Florida Marlins (10-11) and New York Yankees (18-3)
2004: Boston Red Sox (15-6) and St. Louis Cardinals (10-11)
2005: Chicago White Sox (16-5) and Houston Astros (8-13)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals (14-7) and Detroit Tigers (13-8)
2007: Boston Red Sox (14-7) and Colorado Rockies (8-13)
2008: Philadelphia Phillies (11-10) and Tampa Bay Rays (10-11)
The 2009 Mets are 9-12 after 21 games.
Is it better to have a strong start than not? Absolutely.
Can teams come back from slow April starts to win the World Series or make the postseason? Absolutely, although you might have to settle for the Wild Card (2002 Angels, 2003 Florida, 2005 Houston, 2007 Colorado,)
It's also important to remember that you can have the best regular season record over the course of a season, and not even make the World Series. Just ask Lou Piniella and his 2001 Seattle Mariners with their 116-46 record. They lost the ALCS to the Yankees in just 5 games. Or last year's Los Angeles Angels that ran away with the AL West crown and an MLB season-best record of 100-62, only to lose to Boston in the ALDS (again... grrrr!) in 4 games.
Can a strong April be absolutely worthless when it comes to the end result in September? Look no further than the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks, who were 15-6 after their first 21 games, only to end up in 2nd place in the NL West when the season ended. Conversely, the Los Angeles Dodgers started 2008 9-12, and ended up winning the NL West division. The Oakland A's were 12-9 after their first 21 in 2008, and finished the season well below .500 at 75-86.
There's no shortage of examples on both sides of the coin. So when people panic about their team in April if they're not off to a 20+ win month, it's generally unwarranted. Of course, if you're a Washington Nationals fan, you can safely throw in the towel.
The Mets do have cause for concern, and they're going to need to kick things into high gear over the month of May if they want to compete for the NL East crown or the NL Wild Card. With 16 of 29 games against NL East teams in May, the Mets are going to need to win as many of those games as possible to get back into this race.
