State of the Mets

Apparently it's been a very turbulent past week for the Mets, with most of it focusing upon two major points.

1. Manager Willie Randolph's employment status.
2. After winning two from the Yankees in the Bronx last weekend, the Mets then went onto lose 4 in Atlanta, and 2 of 3 to a depleted Rockies team. That means they lost 6 of 7, and dropped to 23-25, 4th place in the NL East.

So, the long-awaited meeting with the Wilpons took place on Monday. The main players were Willie Randolph, GM Omar Minaya, Owner Fred Wilpon, and COO/Owner Jeff Wilpon.

The meeting was to discuss Willie's controversial comments last week about his race being one of the reasons he is criticized, and his shots at SNY for not fairly covering him as a more "well-rounded" person. Of course, Willie has since apologized for these silly statements, and it's a good thing he did. The other issue, at least going into the meeting was, "What to do about Willie."

There is a vocal segment of the Met fanbase that believes that Willie Randolph must be fired ASAP in order for the team to turn things around and that his continued employment is a detriment to the team's success.

Ultimately, the Wilpons didn't agree with that opinion, at least not right now. And Willie Randolph continues to keep  his job. Of course, this will greatly anger that aforementioned segment, which I will get back to shortly.

What came out of the meetings, at least publicly, were that they all met to strategize how to improve the performance of MLB's 3rd-highest payroll. It was also clearly stated by team GM Omar Minaya, “Willie Randolph is our manager.  There is no limbo.  He’s the manager…and I hope he is our manager for many years to come.”

The Mets now face the first-place Fish in a 3-game series at Shea, and then finishing up May with a 4-game set against the Los Angeles Dodgers which goes through to June 1.

A while back I wrote (somewhere) that if the Mets were able to reach the 30-win mark by June 1, then things would be on track, with no reason to worry. The only way the Mets can now reach that milestone is by winning the next 7 in a row, which isn't very likely. The way the team has been playing lately, they will probably end up with a 27-28 record on June 1.

The majority of the fans who want to see Willie Randolph fired, refuse to, or are incapable of grasping that if you fire someone, you have to have a viable replacement in order, or you end up accomplishing a whole lot of absolutely nothing.

Consider the firing of Mets hitting coach Rick Down in July of the 2007 season when the team's offense entered a funk that they've arguably yet to come out of. The numbers show that they've actually gotten worse, especially the 2008 team's numbers.

The solution? Howard Johnson became the team's new hitting coach.

Some fans ask, "Well, what has HoJo ever done?" He was given the job because as hitting coach of the AAA-affiliate Norfolk Tides during the 2005 and 2006 seasons, the team's hitting improved. Johnson had also served as manager of the single-A affiliate Brooklyn Cyclones, and hitting coach with the AA-affiliate Binghamton Mets.

Mets rightfielder Ryan Church has also publicly stated that HoJo helped fix Church's swing, which has led to Church being one of the few members of the 2008 club that has performed above expectations.

All that said, the team's offense is ultimately why the Mets are losing ballgames. They simply are not hitting.

Is it Howard Johnson's fault? Maybe, maybe not.

But it's clearly a problem that needs to be addressed. And the offense's numbers reflect what you would expect from a cellar-dwelling team.

Going into the Marlins series (all stats as of May 26, 2008), the Mets are:

• - 4th lowest in team BA (.253)
• - Bottom half in Runs scored (228)
• - Bottom half in Home Runs (41)
• - 2nd lowest in Doubles (82)
• - Tied for 3rd in Triples (12)
• - In the middle for RBIs (214)
• - 3rd highest in Stolen Bases (46)
• - In the middle for OBP (.329)
• - Tied for 4th lowest in SLG (.391)

It should come as no surprise that the teams with the best offensive numbers are the ones doing far better than the Mets. In fact, the only 1st-place team that isn't an offensive juggernaut (like the Cubs) are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have the best pitching in the NL.

When your offense is more often at the level of the Washington Nationals, San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates, you're simply not going to win ballgames, no matter how many homeruns Aaron Heilman gives up.

So as a team, we know that the Mets have speed, but they're still not scoring runs. Why is that?
Lots of fans want to put the blame on...

Carlos Delgado

Clearly Carlos Delgado is winding down his career. That being said, with his terrible April start, he's playing better than before and is on pace for another 20+ HR season. Even if his anemic .219 BA makes you ill, he IS capable of turning things on. Over the course of his career, Delgado's best months have historically been July-August. Even as recent as July 2007, Delgado hit .323 over the course of that month.

And if not for the umpires at Yankee Stadium blowing the HR foul-pole call on Sunday, May 19, Delgado would have one more HR than his statistics show.

While no one in their right mind wants to see Delgado on the 2009 team, he does still have something left in the tank, although admittedly not much.

The real problem right now, is the centerpiece of the team's offense...

Carlos Beltran

After having the worst year of his career in 2005, his first season as a Met, he then had an MVP-caliber 2006, and a very good 2007.

His 2008 however, is another story. With 4 HRs and a .256 BA, Beltran's May is looking better than his abysmal April. Yet the Mets have had a worse May record (9-13) than they did in April (13-12).

Curiously, the switch-hitting Beltran has much better numbers this season when he's hitting right-handed than left-handed. Obviously since he hits lefty more often, the overwhelming majority of his homeruns come from that side. However, even with a third of his ABs coming from the right side in 2008, his OPS is over 200 points higher (.979) on the right side, than on the left (.739).

In 2007, OPS of .940 batting righty, .853 batting lefty. Prior to 2007, Beltran was much stronger on the left side of the plate.

During the winter, Carlos Beltran had surgery on both of his knees, and has stated as recently as two weeks ago that his left leg is not yet at 100%. Curiously, this hasn't slowed Beltran in the OF or on the bases (6 SB, 1 CS). Then again, running is a different physical mechanic than hitting.

Is Beltran simply better off hitting from the right-side regardless of the pitcher, until his left leg gets to 100%? Probably not, although it wouldn't be the worst idea to at least explore.

Whatever the case, if Beltran doesn't improve at the plate soon, his career-worst 2005 season is going to be beaten by his 2008 season. And what can you really do with a guy who had very good-to-great numbers in 2 of his 3 seasons with the club?

If Carlos Beltran doesn't perform, then the team doesn't perform.

And now we go back to...

Willie Randolph.

His job is safe for now, but most believe it won't be for too long unless the team shows dramatic improvement soon.  And by soon, we're talking weeks, not months.

The other issue surrounding the Mets manager position is that if you fire Willie, then who is the replacement that makes a difference?

The Wilpons are not irrational reactionary clueless monkeys, which is more than can be said for the vultures calling for Randolph's head.

I give you an example of the typical comments...

Moron Mets Fan #1: "Hire Bobby Valentine!!!!"
Rational Person: "He's in Japan, and he's not interested in coming back."
Moron Mets Fan #2: "Hire Davey Johnson!!!"
Rational Person: "He's stated no interest in returning to managing MLB, and is managing the U.S. Olympic baseball team."
Moron Mets Fan #3: "Hire Keith Hernandez!!!!"
Rational Person: "He's perfectly happy doing commentary for SNY, he has no coaching nor managerial experience."
Moron Mets Fan #1: "Well uhhhh, what about Wally Backman??!?!!?!?"
Rational Person: "That's the first reasonable name you've thrown into the mix, congratulations!!! However, his personal problems of the past have made him a "risky" choice in baseball circles and the Mets are not going to go that route anytime soon."
Moron Mets Fan #2: "I hear Gary Carter wants to manage!!!! WE LOVE THE KID!"
Rational Person: "Yes, everyone hears that Gary Carter wants to manage the Mets. Apparently Gary hasn't learned that you don't campaign for baseball managing jobs in the media like he did when Art Howe was the team manager. Carter is a dick, and if you believe there are clubhouse problems now....."
Moron Mets Fan #1: "Hire Bobby Valentine!!!"
Rational Person: "Eat a bullet, asshat."

It's almost amazing that names like Tim Teufel and Jesse Orosco haven't been suggested as replacements, although given enough time, these know-nothing fools will exhaust the entire 1986 roster as potential candidates.

Some players on the current roster, notably David Wright and Billy Wagner, have publicly stated that it's the team that needs to step things up, and Willie Randolph is not the problem here.

But we go back to the question at hand. If you fire Willie Randolph, is there a REAL capable replacement waiting in the wings?

The most likely scenario is that if Randolph does get the axe, the interim manager will be current bench coach Jerry Manuel, since he has the most big-league managerial experience (5 years with the White Sox).  If Manuel can turn the team around, or at least make them competitive during the remainder of the 2008 season, then he would remain as club manager going into 2009.

If not, then a more realistic name like Ken Oberkfell, currently managing the AAA-affiliate New Orleans Zephyrs, who has come up through the Mets minor leagues as a manager, would be the most logical longer-term successor to Willie Randolph's job, at least within the organization.

Of course, the club could go outside and talk to any number of ex-MLB managers/coaches who might be a better fit for this ballclub. Jack McKeon, Felipe Alou, Buck Showalter, Grady Little, Phil Garner, Bob Brenly, Mike Hargrove, etc.

The key is that while you'd have to be a fool to believe that ownership and GM Omar Minaya haven't at least looked into possible managerial replacements, is that there's no quick-and-easy answer at this stage, and the club isn't about to make a hasty decision without exploring all reasonable options.

The question of the day is this... With a 23-25 record, the Mets need to go around 72-42 over the next 112 games in order to win the NL East.

Is that possible? Absolutely. Consider that the 2007 Yankees finished May with a 22-29 record, then went 72-39 for the rest of the season, winning the AL wild card.

Willie Randolph-detractors will point to Randolph's managerial record over the past year of .500 baseball, and that there's no reason to expect anything better than an 81-81 finish.

Willie Randolph-supporters will point to the 2006 season and note that ultimately, the players have to perform up to their standards. After all, if they did it under Willie Randolph before, why shouldn't they be able to do it again?

And thus, a tale of two (or three) teams:
The 2006 NL East-winning team that pretty much won the division in late June, which fell one game short of a World Series appearance.
The 2007 team that collapsed, blowing a 7-game lead to the Philadelphia Phillies with 17 games to go in September.
The 2008 team that has been mediocre, underperforming considering both payroll and talent.

Much as Willie Randolph shares in credit for the 2006 team, he shares in credit (or blame) for the 2007 and 2008 teams not performing at the level they need to. But the players are ultimately the ones who hit, field, and throw.

As noted before, when your offense ranks among the lowest in the league, you cannot win many games.

If the team's hitting improves, so will the Mets. If not, then Willie Randolph will be fired, and someone else will be left to figure out how to solve the team's hitting problems.