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2009 MLB World Series Prediction

But first, a quick rundown of the LCS predictions I made and how they turned out.


AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
My prediction: Yankees in 7 games.
Reality: Yankees in 6 games.

I really wanted to be wrong about this, and believe that the Angels were going to continue to win in the same fashion they did against Boston. Except in Game 1 of the ALCS, the Angels made unimaginable errors such as Erick Aybar and Chone Figgins admiring a Hideki Matsui infield pop-up, but not bothering to catch it. Or Torii Hunter misplaying a base hit in centerfield and the ball getting away from him. It was like watching the Mets.

The Angels should have won Game 2, but Angels closer Brian Fuentes couldn't protect the 3-2 lead in the 9th when he served up an 0-2 fastball to Alex Rodriguez that should've been up and away, but was over the plate enough for A-Rod to hit it over the fence past a jumping Bobby Abreu. That game was won by the Yankees in the 13th inning by a final score of 4-3 when the Angels infield made more errors, blowing the game.

That was the key game in the series, because the Angels had to escape New York with a split, and could not. They won a thrilling Game 3 in Anaheim, got destroyed in Game 4, and won another thrilling game to send the series back to the Bronx before crumbling at the hands of Andy Pettite, Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera in Game 6.

The Yankees don't lose at home. More on that in a bit...

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
My prediction: Philadelphia in 6 games.
Reality: Philadelphia in 5 games.

Like with the ALCS, I predicted the right team, but one less game needed to win. At least my LCS predictions were far more accurate than the LDS ones. Yikes.

An interesting series highlighted by a Game 2 pitching duel between Pedro Martinez and Vicente Padilla in which Pedro pitched 7 shutout innings on 2 hits, and Padilla pitched 7.1 IP giving up only a Ryan Howard home run. But that game was ultimately lost by the Philadelphia bullpen. It was also the only game in the series that the Dodgers won. Once the series shifted to Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies crushed the Dodgers in Game 3 by a 11-0 final. THey mounted a miraculous comeback in Game 4 off Dodger closer Jonathan Broxton when Jimmy Rollins hit a 2-out 2-run double to win the game in dramatic walkoff fashion. And in Game 5, the domination of the Dodgers continued when the Phillies trounced them by a 10-4 final.

The Phillies' offense was firing on all cylinders at home, and they only lost one home game in the postseason, which was to Colorado.

WORLD SERIES
New York Yankees vs. Philadelphia Phillies

So here we are. Two high-powered offenses, two ace pitchers in CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee, two dominant closers who haven't blown a save in the postseason. 

The media likes to break these matchups down by position, and starting pitcher vs. starting pitcher and so forth. Let's face it. The two teams are extremely evenly matched, which should make for a superb World Series.

To me, this series is going to be about home field advantage. There hasn't been a World Series that went more than 5 games since the 2003 version when the Marlins beat the Yankees in 6, and despite the All-Star game continually giving the American League home field advantage since the AL keeps winning, that hasn't mattered too much either.

This year, I think it's all about that. The Yankees do not lose at home in the postseason, and went 57-24 in their ballpark during the regular season. The Phillies DO lose in their own ballpark at times, which I think is going to be the ultimate difference maker here. 

If the Phillies can somehow win a game at Yankee Stadium, then they may have a chance of winning. But I simply don't see them winning there in the postseason. As with all of my Yankee predictions, I hope I am wrong, but...

My prediction: New York Yankees in 6 games.






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LIVEBLOGGING - Game 2 of Doubleheader - New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies - 9-13-09

After losing the first game of the doubleheader earlier today by a final score of 5-4, the Mets look for a split of the doubleheader as well as a split of this 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. This is the final game between the two teams of the season, which is likely why it was scheduled as ESPN's Sunday Night game. ESPN of course, can't be thrilled that this game has zero postseason implications, but that's what happens when you schedule certain things prior to the season.

Depending upon the result of this game, the Mets will have finished their season series against the Phillies with a final record of either 7-11, or 6-12.

Game 2 of the matchup pits Tim Redding (2-5) 5.78 ERA against Pedro Martinez (4-0) 3.64 ERA in 6 starts. Pedro's worst start of the season came on August 23 against the Mets in which he gave up 4 ER in 6 IP, but still got the W due to Philly's offense handing him a 9-7 victory.

What's been extremely impressive this season with Pedro is that he has only walked 4 batters in 29.2 IP. With 27 K over that timespan, Pedro has exceeded all reasonable expectations so far. But can his arm make it into October?

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(All times Pacific)

Top of 1st Inning:
5:09pm: Luis Castillo slaps a liner into left-center field for a leadoff single. ESPN announcers Joe Morgan, Jon Miller and Steve Phillips argue about the description of Castillo's hit. Is it a flare? A slap? A solid hit?

5:12pm: Cory Sullivan flies out to CF Shane Victorino. Castillo cannot advance. 1 out.

5:14pm: David Wright strikes out swinging at a high and outside fastball. 2 outs.

5:15pm: Steve Phillips points out what most rational people already know. No team could survive the number of injuries the Mets have had to their major players (Reyes, Beltran, Delgado) and still compete. Of the big 3 injuries, only Beltran has returned, and it's too late. Many other players have also gone down with injury as we well know (ie: Johan Santana, Alex Cora, Oliver Perez, Fernando Nieve, Jonathon Niese, etc.)

5:16pm: Carlos Beltran walks. Luis Castillo moves to 2nd base.

5:19pm: Daniel Murphy strikes out swinging at a wicked curveball from Pedro Martinez. 3 outs.

Bottom of 1st Inning:
5:23pm: Tim Redding gives up a leadoff walk to Jimmy Rollins on a 3-1 count.

5:25pm: Shane Victorino lines a single into leftfield. Jimmy Rollins moves to 2nd base on the hit.

5:30pm: Chase Utley smashes a long flyball off the top of the LF wall just beyond the reach of Fernando Tatis for a long long single since Jimmy Rollins thought the ball might be caught by Tatis and held up at 2nd base before scoring. Carlos Beltran retrieved the ball in left-center. Shane Victorino moves up to 2nd base on the play. 1-0 Phillies.

5:33pm: Ryan Howard hits a soft liner right at 2B Luis Castillo for the out. Castillo shuffles the ball to Anderson Hernandez at 2nd base hoping to double off Shane Victorino but he's back safe. 1 out.

5:36pm: Raul Ibanez hits a high flyball to CF Carlos Beltran. 2 outs.

5:41pm: Jayson Werth strikes out swinging at a 3-2 curveball and Tim Redding escapes the jam giving up only 1 earned run, although it took him 33 pitches to get through the inning. 3 outs.

Top of 2nd Inning:
5:44pm: Fernando Tatis never took the bat off his shoulder in this AB, watching 5 pitches go by, 3 of them for strikes. 1 out.

5:45pm: Brian Schneider ropes a first-pitch into rightfield for a single.

5:46pm: ESPN cameras are showing Tatis in the Mets tunnel with trainer Ray Ramirez checking out his left hand/arm which he may have injured in the 1st inning when he leaped into the wall on Utley's long single that just missed clearing the fence. He may be out for the rest of the game.

5:47pm: Anderson Hernandez lines a single past 1B Ryan Howard into rightfield. Brian Schneider makes it to 3rd base on the hit.

5:48pm: Tim Redding lays down a sac bunt to the 1st base side of the diamond. The ball is fielded by Pedro Martinez who throws down to Chase Utley covering 1st base for the out. 1-4. 2 outs. Anderson Hernandez moves to 2nd base on the sac bunt.

5:49pm: Luis Castillo gets drilled in the right elbow by a Pedro Martinez pitch and he's hopping around in immense pain before falling to the ground. Mets trainers along with manager Jerry Manuel are out to check on Luis.

5:51pm: While Castillo tries to recover, we're shown a stat that the Mets have had players spend 1,007 days on the DL, more than any other team in baseball by a wide margin. Luis Castillo is ok, and finally gets to 1B. The bases are loaded with 2 outs for Daniel Murphy.

5:53pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to LF Raul Ibanez. 3 outs.

Bottom of 2nd Inning:
5:56pm: Jeremy Reed is in LF to replace Fernando Tatis.

5:57pm: Pedro Feliz pounds the ball onto the left-centerfield warning track for a leadoff double. ESPN announcers Jon Miller and Joe Morgan think Tim Redding got screwed by the home plate ump on the previous pitch that should've been called a strike instead of a ball. They're right.

5:59pm: Redding attempts a pickoff of Feliz at 2B but no dice.

6:00pm: Carlos Ruiz hits a weak grounder to 3B David Wright who makes a clean throw to 1B Daniel Murphy for the out. Feliz does not advance on the play. 5-3. 1 out.

6:01pm: Pedro Martinez grounds out to SS Anderson Hernandez, 6-3. Feliz moves to 3rd base on the play. 2 outs.

6:03pm: Jimmy Rollins flies out to LF Jeremy Reed. 3 outs.

Top of 3rd Inning:
6:05pm: David Wright is at the plate against Pedro Martinez for the first time ever. Well, that would make sense considering they've been teammates since 2005 up until this year, and David was on the DL the last time Pedro faced the Mets on August 23.

6:06pm: Pedro wins that battle getting Wright swinging at a full count 91 MPH fastball that is tipped but caught by catcher Carlos Ruiz. 1 out.

6:08pm: Carlos Beltran grounds out hard right to 1B Ryan Howard, who runs to the bag himself to get the out. 2 outs.

6:09pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to SS Jimmy Rollins in short leftfield. 3 up, 3 down.

Bottom of 3rd Inning:
6:12pm: Shane Victorino hits a weak chopper back to the mound. Tim Redding fields it and throws to Murphy at 1B for the out. 1-3. 1 out.

6:14pm: Chase Utley strikes out swinging at the high heat. 2 outs.

6:17pm: Tim Redding gets Ryan Howard to strike out swinging at the high heat on a full count. 3 outs.

Top of 4th Inning:
6:20pm: Jon Miller reports that the injury to Fernando Tatis was a sprained index finger on his left hand.

6:21pm: Jeremy Reed strikes out swinging at a fastball.  1 out.

6:22pm: Brian Schneider hits a hard grounder right to 1B Ryan Howard. He takes the ball to the bag for the out. 2 outs.

6:24pm: Anderson Hernandez flies out to SS Jimmy Rollins in shallow leftfield. 3 outs. Pedro is starting to cruise along in this game with 5 Ks in 4 IP.

Bottom of 4th Inning:
6:27pm: Raul Ibanez skies out to CF Carlos Beltran in right-centerfield. 1 out.

6:29pm: Jayson Werth smokes a ball right into the mitt of SS Anderson Hernandez. 2 outs.

6:30pm: Pedro Feliz grounds out to 3B David Wright. 5-3. 3 outs. That was 9 pitches for Redding, who has definitely settled in. Problem is, so has Pedro, and Tim Redding is usually garbage after 5 IP.

Top of 5th Inning:
6:33pm: Tim Redding grounds out to SS Jimmy Rollins. 6-3. 1 out. That makes 8 Met batters in a row retired by Pedro Martinez.

6:34pm: Luis Castillo is up with a little padding above his right elbow. However, he lines out to 2B Chase Utley. 2 outs.

6:35pm: Cory Sullivan tries to check his swing at a low pitch but he makes contact. The ball goes right back to Pedro Martinez on the ground, he throws to first. 1-3. 3 outs.

Bottom of 5th Inning:

6:39pm: Carlos Ruiz hits a shot to deep rightfield but it's tracked down by RF Cory Sullivan. 1 out.

6:41pm: Pedro Martinez lines out to Cory Sullivan in short rightfield. 2 outs.

6:43pm: Jimmy Rollins hits a popup on the infield which comes back towards the pitching mound. 1B Daniel Murphy makes the catch. 3 outs.

Top of 6th Inning:
6:46pm: David Wright belts a shot into deep left-center which he thinks may go out of the ballpark, but it hits off the wall and he has to speed up out of his home run trot and slide into 2nd for a double ahead of the throw.

6:51pm: Carlos Beltran strikes out swinging at an outside changeup. 1 out.

6:55pm: Daniel Murphy lines a 3-2 fastball right down the 1B line but it's JUUUST foul.

6:56pm: Daniel Murphy flies out to RF Jayson Werth. Wright can't advance on the play. 2 outs.

6:57pm: Jeremy Reed flies out to CF Shane Victorino. 3 outs.

Bottom of 6th Inning:
7:00pm: Tim Redding has thrown 88 pitches through 5 innings. This will likely be his final inning.

7:01pm: Shane Victorino flies out to CF Carlos Beltran. 1 out.

7:02pm: Chase Utley belts the ball to the centerfield warning track but Carlos Beltran catches it without a problem at around 390 feet. 2 outs.

7:05pm: Ryan Howard takes a full count walk. He, along with Jimmy Rollins, have never had a hit against Tim Redding.

7:06pm: Raul Ibanez grounds out to 2B Luis Castillo. 4-3. 3 outs. Gotta give a lot of credit to Tim Redding for his performance tonight. I wonder if Jerry will let him go some more?

Top of 7th Inning:
7:09pm: Pedro is definitely still pitching for the Phillies, considering the 4-hit shutout he's throwing along with 6 strikeouts and 1 walk.

7:10pm: Brian Schneider grounds out to 1B Ryan Howard who takes it himself. 1 out. Just saw that Tim Redding has thrown 103 pitches through 6 innings. Add to that the pitcher spot coming up, he'll definitely be pinch-hit for.

7:11pm: Anderson Hernandez lines a shot into left-centerfield that is cut off by LF Raul Ibanez which prevents Hernandez from stretching that out into a double.

7:12pm: Lefty hitting Josh Thole is in to pinch-hit for Tim Redding. This will be the first meeting between rookie Thole and veteran Pedro Martinez. Righty arm Sean Green is warming up in the Mets bullpen.

7:13pm: Josh Thole lines out to LF Raul Ibanez. 2 outs.

7:15pm: Sensing this is Pedro's final inning, the Philadelphia phaithful are giving him a huge cheer as he tries to get Luis Castillo out on the 2-2 count. Apparently the fans are also doing the wave. So I don't know which they're cheering for.

7:17pm: On the next pitch, Anderson Hernandez takes off for 2nd base. The throw from Ruiz bounces and hits Hernandez in the back, but the harder collision is from Utley's left hip knocking him in the head. Hernandez seems to be okay though.

7:18pm: Luis Castillo takes a 3-2 inside 92 MPH fastball for a walk. 

7:19pm: Cory Sullivan flies out to LF Raul Ibanez. 3 outs. What a performance from Pedro Martinez. FUCK!

Bottom of 7th Inning:
7:23pm: Sean Green is pitching in relief of Tim Redding. Redding went 6 IP giving up 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts. 

7:25pm: A ball gets away from Sean Green which hits Jayson Werth on the right leg. Clearly unintentional. The Phillies trainer is checking with Werth at first base to make sure his wheels are ok. He jogs up and down the line a bit to make sure, and he's good to go.

7:27pm: Pedro Feliz hits the first pitch he sees from Sean Green to 3B David Wright who starts the 5-4-3 double play. 2 outs.

7:28pm: Carlos Ruiz also hits the first pitch he sees from Sean Green but that goes right back to SS Anderson Hernandez. 6-3. 3 outs.

Top of 8th Inning:
7:30pm: Pedro is still pitching in the 8th inning. This is his longest outing of the season, having thrown 107 pitches in 7 innings. Hopefully this decision by Charlie Manuel will prove to be foolish, but somehow with the Mets, I doubt it.

7:32pm: David Wright strikes out swinging at an outside fastball which Wright laid off of the previous pitch. Both were outside. 1 out.

7:33pm: Steve Phillips thinks sending him out for the 8th was a mistake because he could mess up his arm in the process. Morgan and Miller seem to agree. It's the issue of gaining the win today in the short-term, potentially sacrificing Pedro and his brittle arm in the long-term. Time will tell.

7:34pm: Carlos Beltran grounds out to 2B Chase Utley on the full count curveball. 2 outs. 119 pitches thrown by Martinez in this game.

7:35pm: A huge "LET'S GO PEDRO" chant breaks out among the fans. 

7:36pm: Pedro gets ahead of Daniel Murphy 1-2. The fans rise to their feet. There's no way in hell Pedro Martinez pitches the 9th inning... or is there?

7:37pm: The last time Pedro went 8 innings in a start was against the Diamondbacks on May 30, 2006 while pitching with the Mets.

7:38pm: Daniel Murphy rips a fastball into the rightfield corner for a double. And that's going to be it for Pedro Martinez as Phillies manager Charlie Manuel walks to the mound to take him out of the game after 128 pitches.

7:39pm: Well, he's not taking him out after all. And the fans go nuts. Jon Miller made a reference to Grady Little in the 2003 postseason and how the decision to keep him in against the Yankees came back to bite the Red Sox in the ALCS. 

7:40pm: An 0-1 pitch to Jeremy Reed bounces in the dirt and gets away just a little from catcher Carlos Ruiz, but Daniel Murphy breaks for 3rd base. Ruiz throws down to Pedro Feliz and Murphy is out trying to steal 3rd. 3 outs. I understand the need to score runs, but that ball needed to get a lot further from Ruiz for Murphy to attempt that steal.

Bottom of 8th Inning:
7:44pm: Pedro Martinez threw 130 pitches in 8 innings. He's DEFINITELY done. The most pitches in a start he's thrown since May 1, 2001. 

7:45pm: Lefty Matt Stairs was announced as a pinch-hitter to begin the inning. This prompted Mets manager Jerry Manuel to make a pitching change and go with lefty Pedro Feliciano instead. The Phillies counter by swapping out Matt Stairs with righty hitter Ben Francisco.

7:47pm: Pedro Feliciano throws a slider right down the heart of the plate for strike 3. Ben Francisco dares to question that pitch? Is he joking? 1 out.

7:48pm: Jimmy Rollins hits a weak grounder to SS Anderson Hernandez. 6-3. 2 outs.

7:50pm: Shane Victorino pops out to Daniel Murphy in short rightfield. 3 outs.

Top of 9th Inning:
7:51pm: Ryan Madson comes in from the bullpen to close out the 1-0 game for Philadelphia. But we know the Mets CAN beat him, if they can't beat Pedro.

7:53pm: Jeremy Reed grounds out to 1B Ryan Howard who bobbles the ball, catches it, then throws onto Ryan Madson at 1B to make the out. 3-1. 1 out.

7:55pm: Brian Schneider belts a high fastball in the zone into right-centerfield for a single. Wilson Valdez is brought into pinch-run for Brian Schneider. Omir Santos would go behind the plate if the Mets tie or go ahead.

7:57pm: Jeff Francoeur is pinch-hitting for Anderson Hernandez. 

7:58pm: Jeff Francoeur strikes out swinging at a high heat fastball on an 0-2 count. Ugh. 2 outs.

7:59pm: Angel Pagan is in to pinch-hit for Pedro Feliciano.

8:00pm: Angel Pagan lines out to 3B Pedro Feliz. 3 outs. Game over. 

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Phillies win 1-0 thanks to Pedro Martinez blanking the Mets through 8 innings and 130 pitches. Pedro gave up 3 hits, 1 walk while striking out 7 along the way. Ryan Madson gets his 8th save.

Tim Redding is the hard-luck loser going to 2-6, although he pitched extremely well for the Mets today, giving up 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts through 6 innings. 

So the Mets fall to 6-12 against the Phillies in 2009, and 63-81 overall. 

I believe that was the last nationally televised Mets game of 2009, which means I won't get to see them play again this year. That's probably beneficial for my sanity.

However, the Angels are going to be in the postseason, so there will be some ray of light in all of this.


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