21 posts tagged “johan santana”
As the Mets continue to become more irrelevant in the postseason picture, that means the less games that FOX and ESPN are going to be televising with them involved.
If you believed in hexes or curses, one could certainly understand the troubled case of the 2009 New York Mets.
It's a LIVEBLOG doubleheader today, at least, that's the plan if the rain doesn't ruin things in New York. It certainly won't ruin anything in Southern California, since we barely have rain to begin with. That's sometimes a problem, but not when it comes to baseball.
It's an afternoon matinee (or on the West Coast, morning baseball) between the Mets and Yankees. The rubber game between the injury-riddled Mets and the steroid-riddled Yankees. These two teams will meet again in less than 2 weeks, next time at CitiField, the very antithesis of the home run launching pad that is the new Yankee Stadium.
Losing 15-0 to anyone, sucks.
Losing 15-0 to the Yankees, sucks more.
Losing 15-0 when Johan Santana has the worst start of his entire career, sucks the most.
Not even 24 hours after one of the most crushing Met losses of the season thanks to 2B Luis Castillo dropping a pop fly ball where the Yankees then scored 2 runs to win the game in the most unfortunate and soul-sucking torturous manner we've seen in a long time...
Tampa Bay Rays 2008 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 14-8 3.56 ERA, 215 IP, 40 BB, 160 K
Andy Sonnanstine 13-9 4.38 ERA, 193.1 IP, 37 BB, 124 K
Matt Garza 11-9 3.70 ERA, 184.2 IP, 59 BB, 128 K
Edwin Jackson 14-11 4.42 ERA, 183.1 IP, 77 BB, 108 K
Scott Kazmir 12-8 3.49 ERA, 152.1 IP, 70 BB, 166 K
- James Shields, drafted by Tampa in 2000.
- Andy Sonnantine, drafted by Tampa in 2004.
- Matt Garza, acquired in a 2007 trade along with SS Jason Bartlett with the Minnesota Twins.
- Edwin Jackson, acquired in a 2006 trade with the Dodgers. Jackson was TERRIBLE with the 2007 Rays, going 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA. Jackson was traded to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce after the 2008 season.
- Scott Kazmir... we know.
At this point in time last year, the Rays were 35-24.
Now we look at the 2009 starting rotation for the Tampa Bay Rays and how they're performing so far...
Tampa Bay Rays 2009 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 4-4 3.53 ERA, 74 IP, 20 BB, 52 K
Matt Garza 4-4 3.67 ERA, 73.2 IP, 28 BB, 66 K
Andy Sonnanstine 4-5 7.07 ERA, 56.0 IP, 16 BB, 32 K
Jeff Niemann 5-4 3.77 ERA, 59.2 IP, 24 BB, 39 K
Scott Kazmir 4-4 7.69 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 BB, 35 K
And since Kazmir is now on the DL, and the Rays FINALLY called up top draft pick David Price...
David Price 1-0 3.00 ERA, 9 IP, 7 BB, 17 K
So from examining the starting rotations based on the available stats, the only major issues are the falloff of Andy Sonnanstine and the injury to Kazmir. Kazmir will come back later this month.
Ideally, the Rays would best be suited to have Price and Kazmir healthy and in the rotation, and find another role for Sonnanstine, who likely peaked in 2008.
The offense for the Rays is primarily the same as it was last year with the major changes being Pat Burrell at DH instead of Cliff Floyd.
So despite having a very similar roster to the 2008 team, this is a .500 team at 28-28 on June 3, 2009.
Every team has injuries:
But the Rays suffered a big blow with 2B Akinori Iwamura tearing his ACL and he's gone for the season.
SS Jason Bartlett is currently on the 15-day DL with a sprained left ankle.
DH Pat Burrell is on the 15-day DL with a neck strain, though expected to return in late June.
3B Evan Longoria has a sore left hamstring right now, but SHOULD be ready to play by the weekend. Losing Longoria for any period of time would be extremely devastating to Tampa.
Closer Troy Percival, who had a huge comeback season in 2008, has had a disappointing 2009 and may be gone for the year with shoulder tendinitis, if not his career.
So yes, you can have a great farm system and develop quality players like Longoria, Shields, Price, etc.
But the Rays also have their share of veterans. Some are extremely productive stars (Carl Crawford) or underrated veterans (Carlos Pena), others are filling up roster space (Gabe Kapler, Jason Isringhausen).
And despite having a very similar team to a year ago, they're not playing the way they were. They could potentially have a strong second half and make a run at the AL East, but with Boston and New York having strengthened their rosters in the off-season, that's going to be a tough going.
Their starting rotation is made up of...
1. The best pitcher in the NL
2. Mike Pelfrey, a homegrown Met farm system product who has finally begun to reach his potential.
3. John Maine, a minor league scrub in the Orioles organization who actually became a decent major league pitcher with the Mets.
4. Livan Hernandez, a one-year low-salary journeyman who has been far better than anyone had a right to expect this year, ESPECIALLY against NL East rivals.
5. Oliver Perez, an overpaid free agent who has had an awful start to the 2009 season, but his knee tendinitis is no b.s., and there is still a fair amount of upside to him if he can regain his prior form.
6. Tim Redding. 3 starts in 2009. 1 great, 2 stunk. Not exactly a fair sample to judge by.
Other Met players on the 2009 team who have come up through the Mets farm system?
Jose Reyes, David Wright, Bobby Parnell, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez (and it looks like he ain't ready, but circumstances dictated a callup.)
What about our CAN'T MISS TOP PROSPECT Lastings Milledge who Minaya so insanely foolishly (dripping with sarcasm) traded to Washington?
After a very mediocre 2008, Milledge had a terrible 2009 start at the plate, lost all plate discipline, somehow played worse defense in the OF than Daniel Murphy, pissed off Nationals management (fairly or unfairly, but either way he certainly wasn't producing). As a result, Milledge was optioned to AAA Syracuse, and then broke his finger while trying to bunt.
The point about Lastings Milledge is the same point about Alex Escobar is the same point about Carlos Gomez is the same point about Aaron Heilman.
There's no perfect nor exact science to drafting players. Pitchers that put up great numbers in college may translate to the majors, or they may be total busts. There's zero way to know for sure.
The Nationals are obviously going to draft Stephen Strasburg later this month. Will he be the best pitcher in the game in 2012? Or is he going to be another bust of a top can't-miss prospect? I'd certainly rather have him on the Mets than not, but no one in their right mind is recommending trading Johan Santana for that kid either.
The New York Mets are not off to a good start.
None of the starting pitchers except for Johan Santana are pitching with any semblance of consistency.
With the exception of a winning start over San Diego on April 15, Oliver Perez has been absolutely terrible.
The jury is still out on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine, and Livan Hernandez has so far only been able to pitch well against the Marlins and no one else. As it is, the expectations for Livan Hernandez are quite low.
While Frankie Rodriguez has not blown any saves yet, and he will, JJ Putz and Sean Green have not held leads during the last two games of the series against the Florida Marlins at CitiField. While these things are bound to happen, you don't want to see them happen two games in a row.
David Wright is off to a very bad start, and he's whiffing at a record pace for him. Slow starts are one thing, but striking out like you're Ryan Howard is another. On the other hand, you can see that his numbers for the month of April 2009 are still better than his start to April 2007, with only the strikeouts being the major increase.
April 2005: 17 strikeouts in 76 ABs, 23 games, .303 / .418 / .539
April 2006: 13 strikeouts in 89 ABs, 24 games. .303 / .377 / .584
April 2007: 23 strikeouts in 90 ABs. 24 games. .244 / .370 / .311
April 2008: 16 strikeouts in 96 ABs. 26 games. .281 / .417 / .531 (one game on March 31, 2008 also included)
April 2009: 27 strikeouts in 82 ABs. 21 games. .280 / .372 / .390
The highest amount of strikeouts David Wright has ever had in a single month was May 2006, when he struck out 29 times, but in 27 games and 110 ABs. He still remained far more productive during that period though, hitting .336 / .408 / .500.
However, slow starts do not rule out a team's ability to get to the posteason come October.
Here are the 21-game records of the World Series teams (both winner and loser) dating back to 2000. I use 21 as the benchmark since that's how many games the Mets have played in the 2009 season as of April 30.
(Teams with below .500 records after 21 games are bolded and italicized.)
2000: New York Yankees (14-7) and New York Mets (14-7)
2001: Arizona Diamondbacks (11-10) and New York Yankees (11-10)
2002: Anaheim Angels (7-14) and San Francisco Giants (13-8)
2003: Florida Marlins (10-11) and New York Yankees (18-3)
2004: Boston Red Sox (15-6) and St. Louis Cardinals (10-11)
2005: Chicago White Sox (16-5) and Houston Astros (8-13)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals (14-7) and Detroit Tigers (13-8)
2007: Boston Red Sox (14-7) and Colorado Rockies (8-13)
2008: Philadelphia Phillies (11-10) and Tampa Bay Rays (10-11)
The 2009 Mets are 9-12 after 21 games.
Is it better to have a strong start than not? Absolutely.
Can teams come back from slow April starts to win the World Series or make the postseason? Absolutely, although you might have to settle for the Wild Card (2002 Angels, 2003 Florida, 2005 Houston, 2007 Colorado,)
It's also important to remember that you can have the best regular season record over the course of a season, and not even make the World Series. Just ask Lou Piniella and his 2001 Seattle Mariners with their 116-46 record. They lost the ALCS to the Yankees in just 5 games. Or last year's Los Angeles Angels that ran away with the AL West crown and an MLB season-best record of 100-62, only to lose to Boston in the ALDS (again... grrrr!) in 4 games.
Can a strong April be absolutely worthless when it comes to the end result in September? Look no further than the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks, who were 15-6 after their first 21 games, only to end up in 2nd place in the NL West when the season ended. Conversely, the Los Angeles Dodgers started 2008 9-12, and ended up winning the NL West division. The Oakland A's were 12-9 after their first 21 in 2008, and finished the season well below .500 at 75-86.
There's no shortage of examples on both sides of the coin. So when people panic about their team in April if they're not off to a 20+ win month, it's generally unwarranted. Of course, if you're a Washington Nationals fan, you can safely throw in the towel.
The Mets do have cause for concern, and they're going to need to kick things into high gear over the month of May if they want to compete for the NL East crown or the NL Wild Card. With 16 of 29 games against NL East teams in May, the Mets are going to need to win as many of those games as possible to get back into this race.
Allow me to bottom line this...
Oliver Perez was signed by the New York Mets to pitch against 3 teams.
The Philadelphia Phillies, the Atlanta Braves, and the New York Yankees.
Perez has inexplicably owned the Yankees throughout his entire career, (5-1 in 6 career starts, 41.1 IP, 2.61 ERA). While the Mets only face the Yankees 6 times per season, it would be quite fortuitous if Perez were able to have 2 starts against them.
Last year, Perez dominated the Philadelphia Phillies even more than Mets ace Johan Santana did.
In 4 starts against the Phillies, Perez was 1-0 with a 0.35 ERA over 26 IP. He gave up a total of one earned run in 4 games against Philadelphia.
In 2007, Perez posted a 4-1 record in 5 starts against the Atlanta Braves, with a 3.03 ERA over 32.2 IP.
In 2008, Perez had no decisions in 3 starts against Atlanta, with a 3.72 ERA over 19.1 IP.
For all the talk about how "inconsistent" Oliver Perez is, the reality is that he more often than not, pitches very well against any one of those 3 teams, OR in high-pressure situations. When he pitches against other teams that are merely "regular season games," no one really knows what to expect.
His one good performance in 2009 came against the San Diego Padres. It was a high-pressure situation in that the Mets had lost the CitiField opener to San Diego, and the Mets desperately wanted that first home win ASAP.
The way the schedule works out, unless there are any rainouts, Oliver Perez's next three starts will be against Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Atlanta.
Of course, there's no guarantee that Perez will pitch great those games, but the odds are in his favor based on track record.
If he fails to pitch adequately in these games, then I would say there is great cause for concern. As it is, you don't want to see him pitch so extremely poorly against the rest of the league.
But it's too early in the season to panic, especially when Oliver Perez is about to begin facing teams that he was specifically paid to beat.
There are runs. There were 26 of them at Yankee Stadium on Saturday, but only 4 of them belonged to the Yankees.
If Thursday's home opener at Yankee Stadium was an assraping, then today's 22-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians was a pubic scalping. Someone oughtta let the Tribe know that the Home Run Derby isn't until July.
Just when you thought, "Hey, Chien-Ming Wang can't get any worse than his last two starts," he managed to show you "Oh yes I can!" Wang's ERA ballooned to a whopping 34.50.
But then, even knowing full well that Wang might be a problem today, the Yankees brought up AAA pitcher Anthony "Rhymes with" Claggett just in case. And he pitched just as badly as Wang did. Maybe worse.
Wang's line today was 1.1 IP, 8 hits, 8 runs (all earned), 0 walks (silver lining!), 1 strikeout, 1 home run.
Claggett's line? 1.2 IP, 9 hits, 8 runs (all earned), 2 walks, 2 strikeouts, 2 home runs.
Claggett's ERA is now 43.20. Welcome to the bigs, kid.
The rest of the Yankee bullpen wasn't much better. Between Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras and Damaso Marte, the three relievers managed to let another 6 runs score before the game was finally over. Only Veras could really be considered to have done a good job during the game, with his only mistake being a solo blast given up to Travis Hafner over the course of 3 innings.
But what was truly record-setting about this game, is that the Indians scored 14 runs in the 2nd inning. That is the highest number of runs ever given up in one inning in all of Yankees franchise history. It's also the first time in MLB history that any team has scored 14 runs in the 2nd inning of any MLB game.
The Yankees HAVE however, given up 22 runs before. 22-0 to the Cleveland Indians on August 31, 2004.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090418&content_id=4330040&vkey=news_cle&fext=.jsp&c_id=cle
There is no truth to the rumor though, that any time the Indians score more than 20 runs against the Yankees, that all fans in attendance receive a free smallpox blanket.
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And then there was a run.
The one run that belonged to the New York Mets. Johan Santana can't get no run support, but he's definitely getting the bullpen support.
Johan Santana pitched 7 innings of shutout ball against the Milwaukee Brewers, scattering 5 hits, seven strikeouts, and didn't walk a soul.
Unfortunately, Brewers pitcher Yovani Gallardo pitched 6 innings of shutout ball against the Mets, and it wasn't until the bottom of the 7th when a Jose Reyes liner that ricocheted off of reliever Carlos Villanueva's glove, knocking the glove off his hand, scored backup catcher/pinch-runner Omir Santos from 3rd base.
And that's all the runs the Mets needed, although Johan really could use some more in future starts. In 3 starts this season, he's given up a total of one earned run in 19.2 innings pitched, and that one run was from a Brandon Phillips sacrifice fly in the season opener against Cincinnati in which the Mets held on 2-1 for the win. That translates to a 0.46 ERA out of the gate.
Once the Mets got their one run, it was time for the bullpen to do their job. With Santana going 7, there was no need for Sean Green or Pedro Feliciano in this game. It was Putz for the 8th, and Frankie for the 9th.
No Brewer made it past 1st base all game. Ryan Braun was thrown out trying to steal 2nd base for the final out of the game by Santos.
That's the template the Mets want for all close games that the Mets have the lead in. Starter goes 6, Green/Feliciano in the 7th, Putz in the 8th, Frankie in the 9th. So far only Santana has been able to deliver each time out.
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So the New York Mets now stand 6-5, having remained competetive in all of their 5 losses. Losing 4 of them by 1 run, 1 by 2 runs.
The New York Yankees now stand 6-6, having been absolutely blown the fuck out in 3 losses, losing convincingly in the season opener to the Orioles, only remaining competetive in 2 of the other losses in which they lost by 2 runs.
Is it really even about the money with Manny Ramirez at this point? Go ahead, offer him $25 million for a year. He turns it down.
Manny wants years AND money. The Dodgers offered 2 years with a 3rd-year option in October which would total $60 million. Manny said no.
Then they offered him arbitration. Manny said no.
Then they offered him $25 million/1 year. Manny said no.
Manny wants 4 years. So far, no team is saying yes. Not the Dodgers, nor the Giants. The Angels, Nationals, Yankees, Mets, have all publicly stated "we're not interested," and surely based on financial information alone, that's quite believable, although I suppose the Yankees could always pull a rabbit out of their ass at the final minute.
If the Mets DID offer him a long-term deal, where's the money available to fill the other slots in 2010 and beyond?
You're going to start the 2010 season with a lot of big-$ contracts already tied up.
Johan Santana: $21 million
Frankie Rodriguez: $11.5 million
Carlos Beltran: $18.5 million
Oliver Perez: $12 million
David Wright: $10 million
Luis Castillo: $6 million
Jose Reyes: $9 million
That's $88 million ALREADY tied up for the 2010 season. Add Manny Ramirez to a 2010 payroll? You're now looking at $115 million.
You still need money for all the players you won't have under contract in 2010.
That's 3 starting pitchers (Pelfrey, Maine, whoever) whose contracts are up after 2009.
That's a catcher you no longer have.
That's a 1B you no longer have.
That's a RF you no longer have.
That's practically an entire bench you no longer have.
That's
more bullpen slots to fill. Sanchez, Feliciano, Green, Stokes, etc. All
gone. If the Mets pick up Putz's 2010 option, add another $8.6 million
to the payroll.
So now with Putz, Ramirez, and the aforementioned players, your exorbitant 2010 payroll is already at $123.6 million.
That leaves around... $30 million to fill ALL of those other positions, with RF, 1B and C being kinda major slots.
Still want to sign Manny?