11 posts tagged “world series”
I keep reading and hearing about it.
- Because of the obnoxious arrogance displayed by both their longtime fans and their legions of bandwagon boobs and douchebags who feel that they are absolutely entitled to always win.
- Because of the sheer absurdity of "26 rings!!! 26 rings!!!" When the reality is, they have 7 rings since 1962, the first year of the Mets' existence. 7 is still a lot more than 2, but it's not 26. The last thing we need is "27 rings!!! 27 rings!!!" or... 8 since 1962.
- Because they are a team whose latest dynasty (1996, 1998-2000) was built upon performance enhancing-drugs, and the Mets LOST to that roided-up team in the 2000 World Series.
- Because Alex Rodriguez is another steroid-using lying cheating prick who is in love with both Kate Hudson and Derek Jeter's ass.
- Because of the lunacy of the "aura and mystique" horseshit.
- Because of the fucking Steinbrenners.
- Because in New York City, the media will always treat the Yankees as numero uno because they've been around since 1903, and as a result, have a longer history. Why should any Met fan be happy about that?
- Because while I don't believe that the Yankees "buy championships" as no team can do so, they definitely do attempt to buy postseason berths. What makes that unfortunate is that many Met fans believe their team has to follow suit and continually lead the NL in highest payroll, instead of constructing the best team period.
- Because Roger Clemens intentionally beaned Mike Piazza, and later threw a bat at him, you fucking forgetful fruits!
- Because the Yankees and their fans represent all that is wrong with baseball, and they are known as the "Evil Empire" for many reasons, some of which I've already mentioned.
But first, a quick rundown of the LCS predictions I made and how they turned out.
It's the most...wonderful tiiiiime of the year!!!!
Tampa Bay Rays 2008 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 14-8 3.56 ERA, 215 IP, 40 BB, 160 K
Andy Sonnanstine 13-9 4.38 ERA, 193.1 IP, 37 BB, 124 K
Matt Garza 11-9 3.70 ERA, 184.2 IP, 59 BB, 128 K
Edwin Jackson 14-11 4.42 ERA, 183.1 IP, 77 BB, 108 K
Scott Kazmir 12-8 3.49 ERA, 152.1 IP, 70 BB, 166 K
- James Shields, drafted by Tampa in 2000.
- Andy Sonnantine, drafted by Tampa in 2004.
- Matt Garza, acquired in a 2007 trade along with SS Jason Bartlett with the Minnesota Twins.
- Edwin Jackson, acquired in a 2006 trade with the Dodgers. Jackson was TERRIBLE with the 2007 Rays, going 5-15 with a 5.76 ERA. Jackson was traded to Detroit for OF Matt Joyce after the 2008 season.
- Scott Kazmir... we know.
At this point in time last year, the Rays were 35-24.
Now we look at the 2009 starting rotation for the Tampa Bay Rays and how they're performing so far...
Tampa Bay Rays 2009 Starting Rotation:
James Shields 4-4 3.53 ERA, 74 IP, 20 BB, 52 K
Matt Garza 4-4 3.67 ERA, 73.2 IP, 28 BB, 66 K
Andy Sonnanstine 4-5 7.07 ERA, 56.0 IP, 16 BB, 32 K
Jeff Niemann 5-4 3.77 ERA, 59.2 IP, 24 BB, 39 K
Scott Kazmir 4-4 7.69 ERA, 45.2 IP, 29 BB, 35 K
And since Kazmir is now on the DL, and the Rays FINALLY called up top draft pick David Price...
David Price 1-0 3.00 ERA, 9 IP, 7 BB, 17 K
So from examining the starting rotations based on the available stats, the only major issues are the falloff of Andy Sonnanstine and the injury to Kazmir. Kazmir will come back later this month.
Ideally, the Rays would best be suited to have Price and Kazmir healthy and in the rotation, and find another role for Sonnanstine, who likely peaked in 2008.
The offense for the Rays is primarily the same as it was last year with the major changes being Pat Burrell at DH instead of Cliff Floyd.
So despite having a very similar roster to the 2008 team, this is a .500 team at 28-28 on June 3, 2009.
Every team has injuries:
But the Rays suffered a big blow with 2B Akinori Iwamura tearing his ACL and he's gone for the season.
SS Jason Bartlett is currently on the 15-day DL with a sprained left ankle.
DH Pat Burrell is on the 15-day DL with a neck strain, though expected to return in late June.
3B Evan Longoria has a sore left hamstring right now, but SHOULD be ready to play by the weekend. Losing Longoria for any period of time would be extremely devastating to Tampa.
Closer Troy Percival, who had a huge comeback season in 2008, has had a disappointing 2009 and may be gone for the year with shoulder tendinitis, if not his career.
So yes, you can have a great farm system and develop quality players like Longoria, Shields, Price, etc.
But the Rays also have their share of veterans. Some are extremely productive stars (Carl Crawford) or underrated veterans (Carlos Pena), others are filling up roster space (Gabe Kapler, Jason Isringhausen).
And despite having a very similar team to a year ago, they're not playing the way they were. They could potentially have a strong second half and make a run at the AL East, but with Boston and New York having strengthened their rosters in the off-season, that's going to be a tough going.
Their starting rotation is made up of...
1. The best pitcher in the NL
2. Mike Pelfrey, a homegrown Met farm system product who has finally begun to reach his potential.
3. John Maine, a minor league scrub in the Orioles organization who actually became a decent major league pitcher with the Mets.
4. Livan Hernandez, a one-year low-salary journeyman who has been far better than anyone had a right to expect this year, ESPECIALLY against NL East rivals.
5. Oliver Perez, an overpaid free agent who has had an awful start to the 2009 season, but his knee tendinitis is no b.s., and there is still a fair amount of upside to him if he can regain his prior form.
6. Tim Redding. 3 starts in 2009. 1 great, 2 stunk. Not exactly a fair sample to judge by.
Other Met players on the 2009 team who have come up through the Mets farm system?
Jose Reyes, David Wright, Bobby Parnell, Daniel Murphy, Fernando Martinez (and it looks like he ain't ready, but circumstances dictated a callup.)
What about our CAN'T MISS TOP PROSPECT Lastings Milledge who Minaya so insanely foolishly (dripping with sarcasm) traded to Washington?
After a very mediocre 2008, Milledge had a terrible 2009 start at the plate, lost all plate discipline, somehow played worse defense in the OF than Daniel Murphy, pissed off Nationals management (fairly or unfairly, but either way he certainly wasn't producing). As a result, Milledge was optioned to AAA Syracuse, and then broke his finger while trying to bunt.
The point about Lastings Milledge is the same point about Alex Escobar is the same point about Carlos Gomez is the same point about Aaron Heilman.
There's no perfect nor exact science to drafting players. Pitchers that put up great numbers in college may translate to the majors, or they may be total busts. There's zero way to know for sure.
The Nationals are obviously going to draft Stephen Strasburg later this month. Will he be the best pitcher in the game in 2012? Or is he going to be another bust of a top can't-miss prospect? I'd certainly rather have him on the Mets than not, but no one in their right mind is recommending trading Johan Santana for that kid either.
The New York Mets are not off to a good start.
None of the starting pitchers except for Johan Santana are pitching with any semblance of consistency.
With the exception of a winning start over San Diego on April 15, Oliver Perez has been absolutely terrible.
The jury is still out on Mike Pelfrey and John Maine, and Livan Hernandez has so far only been able to pitch well against the Marlins and no one else. As it is, the expectations for Livan Hernandez are quite low.
While Frankie Rodriguez has not blown any saves yet, and he will, JJ Putz and Sean Green have not held leads during the last two games of the series against the Florida Marlins at CitiField. While these things are bound to happen, you don't want to see them happen two games in a row.
David Wright is off to a very bad start, and he's whiffing at a record pace for him. Slow starts are one thing, but striking out like you're Ryan Howard is another. On the other hand, you can see that his numbers for the month of April 2009 are still better than his start to April 2007, with only the strikeouts being the major increase.
April 2005: 17 strikeouts in 76 ABs, 23 games, .303 / .418 / .539
April 2006: 13 strikeouts in 89 ABs, 24 games. .303 / .377 / .584
April 2007: 23 strikeouts in 90 ABs. 24 games. .244 / .370 / .311
April 2008: 16 strikeouts in 96 ABs. 26 games. .281 / .417 / .531 (one game on March 31, 2008 also included)
April 2009: 27 strikeouts in 82 ABs. 21 games. .280 / .372 / .390
The highest amount of strikeouts David Wright has ever had in a single month was May 2006, when he struck out 29 times, but in 27 games and 110 ABs. He still remained far more productive during that period though, hitting .336 / .408 / .500.
However, slow starts do not rule out a team's ability to get to the posteason come October.
Here are the 21-game records of the World Series teams (both winner and loser) dating back to 2000. I use 21 as the benchmark since that's how many games the Mets have played in the 2009 season as of April 30.
(Teams with below .500 records after 21 games are bolded and italicized.)
2000: New York Yankees (14-7) and New York Mets (14-7)
2001: Arizona Diamondbacks (11-10) and New York Yankees (11-10)
2002: Anaheim Angels (7-14) and San Francisco Giants (13-8)
2003: Florida Marlins (10-11) and New York Yankees (18-3)
2004: Boston Red Sox (15-6) and St. Louis Cardinals (10-11)
2005: Chicago White Sox (16-5) and Houston Astros (8-13)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals (14-7) and Detroit Tigers (13-8)
2007: Boston Red Sox (14-7) and Colorado Rockies (8-13)
2008: Philadelphia Phillies (11-10) and Tampa Bay Rays (10-11)
The 2009 Mets are 9-12 after 21 games.
Is it better to have a strong start than not? Absolutely.
Can teams come back from slow April starts to win the World Series or make the postseason? Absolutely, although you might have to settle for the Wild Card (2002 Angels, 2003 Florida, 2005 Houston, 2007 Colorado,)
It's also important to remember that you can have the best regular season record over the course of a season, and not even make the World Series. Just ask Lou Piniella and his 2001 Seattle Mariners with their 116-46 record. They lost the ALCS to the Yankees in just 5 games. Or last year's Los Angeles Angels that ran away with the AL West crown and an MLB season-best record of 100-62, only to lose to Boston in the ALDS (again... grrrr!) in 4 games.
Can a strong April be absolutely worthless when it comes to the end result in September? Look no further than the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks, who were 15-6 after their first 21 games, only to end up in 2nd place in the NL West when the season ended. Conversely, the Los Angeles Dodgers started 2008 9-12, and ended up winning the NL West division. The Oakland A's were 12-9 after their first 21 in 2008, and finished the season well below .500 at 75-86.
There's no shortage of examples on both sides of the coin. So when people panic about their team in April if they're not off to a 20+ win month, it's generally unwarranted. Of course, if you're a Washington Nationals fan, you can safely throw in the towel.
The Mets do have cause for concern, and they're going to need to kick things into high gear over the month of May if they want to compete for the NL East crown or the NL Wild Card. With 16 of 29 games against NL East teams in May, the Mets are going to need to win as many of those games as possible to get back into this race.
First, a quick recap of the ALCS and NLCS predictions I made...
http://letsgomets.vox.com/library/post/mlb-2nd-round-playoffs-nlcs-and-alcs-predictions.html
ALCS:
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
My prediction: Rays in 7 games
Reality: Rays in 7 games
This didn't necessarily become the home-field advantage series I thought it would, meaning that Tampa would win their 4 at home, Red Sox would win their 3 at Fenway. Boston won Game 1, Tampa won the next 3 games (1 in Tampa, 2 in Boston), Boston won the next two (home and away), and Tampa won the all-important (and thrilling) Game 7.
NLCS:
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
My prediction: Dodgers in 6 games
Reality: Phillies in 5 games
I pretty much went over this series in this post: http://letsgomets.vox.com/library/post/never-so-happy-to-be-wrong.html
and there's not much more to be said about it.
So now, we have the World Series matchup which may not be watched by too many people, but it should make for an intriguing matchup either way.
World Series:
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Philadelphia Phillies
In analyzing this matchup, there are a number of factors to take into consideration.
Home-field advantage: Tampa has it, in part due to Scott Kazmir's performance at the All-Star game back in July at Yankee Stadium. Playing at Tropicana Field didn't mean as much in the ALCS as it did in the ALDS, but I still feel that knowing how to play balls off that turf has a big impact. That's not to say the turf will make an iota of difference when guys like Ryan Howard are hitting 400-foot shots over the fences, but the Rays have their own sluggers.
Offense: People keep thinking that Philadelphia has the advantage here with guys like Utley, Howard and Burrell. Meanwhile, Evan Longoria and BJ Upton were pounding the tar off the baseball. Longoria have hit 6 HRs in this year's postseason so far, with BJ Upton hitting 7 bombs in the same timeframe. The rest of the team is hitting too, posting a team SLG of .508 during the ALDS and ALCS. Philadelphia has a team SLG of .431 during their NLDS and NLCS.
So here as well, the advantage goes to Tampa.
Defense: This is tricky. The Tampa Bay defense has been less than stellar during the playoffs, especially during the ALCS, but very good during the regular season. The Phillies have been excellent throughout, so the advantage goes to Philadelphia here.
Starting Pitching: Cole Hamels and then.... Yeah, that's kinda the problem for the Phillies. Brett Myers is hit and miss, and Jamie Moyer has not had a good postseason at all. The Rays have the studs of Matt Garza (ALCS MVP), James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine.
Bullpen: The Phillies have had the best bullpen in the postseason, and the effectiveness of Brad Lidge all season has been the key reason to their success. But Tampa's bullpen has also been very good all season, although very shaky in some of the games against Boston. Still, David Price may prove to be the X factor as the Rays' de facto closer who pitched under unbelievable pressure in Game 7 of the ALCS and prevented Bostom from scoring. Besides, I have to believe that Brad Lidge blows a save at SOME point 2008. Wouldn't the World Series be the best time?
Overall: Tampa just has too much going for them right now. It's not that Philadelphia isn't a good team, but I believe that they are overmatched by the Tampa ballclub. I see the Phillies taking a game in this series, likely one pitched by Cole Hamels, but I think Tampa is going to take this series fairly quickly.
My prediction: Tampa Bay Rays in 5 games.
Well, I didn't get the number of games right, but I got the teams right, which is a huge 180 from my initial LDS predictions.
I predicted Boston over Cleveland in 5 games, it took the Red Sox 7.
I predicted Colorado over Arizona in 6 games, and they swept them in 4.
So this brings us to one of the most unlikeliest World Series matchups in a while.
The team with the best record during the regular season (yes, I know the Indians had the same record, but the head-to-head during regular season gave Boston the home field advantage, and plus, they won the ALCS) against the wild card team from the National League who not only barely squeaked into a tie for the wild card, but then had to win an extra-inning thriller to win the wild card.
That being said, even though Colorado almost missed the playoffs, they've been unstoppable, having won 21 of 22 games.
There's a lot of talk about how Colorado has had all this time off (8 days) between the end of the NLCS and the start of the World Series, and that the "sitting around and waiting" is going to be their demise.
To me, that's irrelevant. They certainly run enough scrimmages and practices during that period to keep the guys fresh and active. Ultimately, who is the better team?
On paper, it's the Red Sox, easily. But the Phillies were also better on paper, as were the Diamondbacks. But that didn't stop the Rockies from not only winning each series, but sweeping them in impressive if not improbable fashion.
So what's going to happen in ths 2007 World Series? The Boston Red Sox are a superior team, but the Rockies are the first undefeated postseason team since in 21 years (since the 1976 Reds). That's gotta count for something, no?
Game 1 pits Josh Beckett (ALCS MVP and seemingly postseason pitching GOD) vs Jeff Francis, at Fenway Park, Wednesday night.
Here's my prediction. The team that wins Game 1 of the World Series, will win it in 5 games. Whether that's Colorado, or Boston, I don't know. But it all rides on the opening game of the series.
I'm in a strange position. I rarely get to see the Mets play, so I don't know exactly what the problem is with this team, and who is to say that even if I DID see them play on a regular basis, I'd be able to pinpoint the problem.
But I know they've lost 5 in a row. Philadelphia swept them at Shea, and now the lowly Nationals are on the verge of doing the same to the Mets at RFK Stadium. I know that when I see the boxscores, that the last two games the Mets scored in the 1st inning, getting out to a healthy 3-4 run lead, only to have their pitching staff continually squander that lead.
I know that the team committed 10 fielding errors in the course of 2 games, something that no Mets team had EVER done before. I know that this is not as good a team as they were in 2006, but they're not nearly as bad as they have been playing either. I'm not even going to talk about the postseason right now, because it may be completely for naught if the Metropolitans keep losing game after game. The Mets had a 7-game lead over the Phillies on Sep 12. No team has ever squandered that big of a lead and lost the division in MLB history.
Do I think the Mets are going to completely collapse? No. But is barely winning the division and then getting eliminated in the first round by (presumably) the San Diego Padres or Arizona Diamondbacks any better? No. The 2007 Mets need to somehow turn things around immediately and convincingly win this division by DESERVING it, as opposed to squeaking into the title.
I suppose in an ironic twist, I fully believe my 2nd-favorite team, the L.A. Angels of Anaheim, are going to win the World Series anyways, beating whoever they face (at this rate, it looks to be the Skanks, the Sux, and whoever the NL representative is)
So much for Detroit in 4, 3, or any number of games.
The Cardinals became a completely different team after the final game of the regular season, and while they barely squeaked by the New York Mets in the NLCS, they were able to steamroll the Detroit Tigers in 5 games. Perhaps if Kenny Rogers hadn't had SOMETHING on his hand (though I'm not sure why the Cardinals couldn't hit him after it was wiped off, but that's in the past now...) they might've even swept the Tigers in 4.
While the ratings for this World Series have set records for all-time lows, none too surprisingly since there really wasn't much of a compelling story other than the two teams playing were:
The Detroit Tigers, who hadn't gone to the World Series since 1984, and lost 119 games in 2003
vs.
The St. Louis Cardinals. The worst of all 8 postseason teams as far as regular season records, but have consistently been in the playoffs the last couple of years, and had 9 World Series championships (2nd only to you know who) to their franchise name.
So, not the most compelling storyline, and America showed they didn't really care by not tuning in. The Cardinals had the lowest win total of any World Series team in MLB history with a mere 83. They're also the first team to win the World Series in a new ballpark since the 1923 Yankees.
As best as I can tell, the real compelling story out of the World Series, was Jeff Weaver, which I pretty much covered in an earlier entry. Even though he was the losing pitcher in Game 2 of both the NLCS and World Series, he still pitched amazingly well in both games. And obviously in Game 5, was fantastic.
Ultimately, the World Series MVP award (and a brand new Corvette) was given to David Eckstein (who now has 2 WS rings in the past 5 years, along with Scott Spiezio). He hit .364 through the World Series including 3 doubles in Game 4. I don't remember why the Angels ever let him go. Must have been an inability to come to terms over money.
Everyone thought the Tigers were going to murder the Cardinals. The exact opposite happened.
Maybe it's about time that everyone takes the Cardinals seriously.
Sure, they barely got into the playoffs by ending the season with a very weak September, and Houston almost overtook them for the NL Central title.
Sure, they had the worst record of the 8 teams that got into the playoffs with an incredibly mediocre 83 wins, which ironically, was the same number of wins that the 2005 Mets had.
Sure, they were picked by most (including myself) to lose to the Padres in the NLDS.
Sure, they were picked by EVERYONE to lose to the Mets in the NLCS.
Sure, they were picked by EVERYONE to get destroyed by the Tigers in the World Series. After all, during the regular season when the two teams played, the Tigers swept the Cardinals in 3 games.
And yet, the St. Louis Cardinals are exceeding everyone's expectations by leaps and bounds. They won Game 1 of the World Series. Which is one more game than many expected them to win against Detroit. Nevermind that it was IN Detroit.
While it's only 1 game of the World Series so far, it was one of Detroit's best starters (Justin Verlander) against St. Louis's worst starter (Anthony Reyes).
And yet, the Cardinals rocked Verlander for 6 ER in 5 IP. Scott Rolen, solo HR. Albert Pujols, 2-run HR.
Even Craig Monroe's bottom 9 leadoff solo blast merely made the score 7-2. While that was enough to remove rookie Anthony Reyes from the game after pitching absolutely brilliantly (2 ER, 4 H over 8 IP) against the Tigers, it didn't really make a dent. Braden Looper came in, shut the Tigers down and sealed the Cardinal victory out of the chute.
Everyone was supposed to handle the Cardinals easily. After all, they ended the season a mere two games above .500.
All they really proved is that the regular season and the postseason are mutually exclusive. The 2001 Mariners won 116 games, easily the best team in the regular season that year, but lost to the inferior Yankees in the ALCS.
The laughable St. Louis Cardinals of the regular season, who barely eeked into the division title, have shown that they're no longer worthy of being laughed at.
